VARIABILIDADE TEMPORAL DAS SECAS (SPI) E O RISCO CLIMÁTICO PARA O ALGODÃO EM CAMPO VERDE, MATO GROSSO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i3.20760Palabras clave:
Variabilidade Climática, Índice Padronizado de Precipitação, Déficit hídrico, Cerrado Brasileiro, Sistemas AgrícolasResumen
A variabilidade climática impõe riscos severos aos sistemas de segunda safra no Cerrado. Este estudo avaliou a variabilidade temporal das secas e os riscos climáticos associados à produção de algodão em Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, no período de 1970 a 2024. Foram utilizados dados da reanálise ERA5-Land para o cálculo do Índice Padronizado de Precipitação (SPI) nas escalas de 1, 3 e 6 meses. As tendências foram avaliadas pelos testes de Mann-Kendall e de Sen, evidenciando elevada variabilidade interanual da precipitação, com média de 1684,0 mm, além de aumento na ocorrência de eventos de seca moderada a severa a partir de 2020. Observou-se tendência negativa significativa da disponibilidade hídrica entre maio e outubro, indicando maior persistência do período seco e irregularidade no estabelecimento das chuvas. O SPI-6 também revelou anomalias persistentes, com implicações potenciais para a recarga hídrica do solo. Para o algodão, esse cenário amplia os riscos durante o estabelecimento, a floração e o enchimento das maçãs, podendo comprometer produtividade e qualidade da fibra. Conclui-se que o SPI constitui uma ferramenta relevante para subsidiar o planejamento agrícola, o ZARC, o ajuste das épocas de semeadura e as práticas conservacionistas.
Palavras-chave: variabilidade climática; índice padronizado de precipitação; déficit hídrico; cerrado brasileiro; sistemas agrícolas.
Temporal variability of droughts (SPI) and climate risk for cotton in Campo Verde, Mato Grosso
ABSTRACT: Climate variability imposes severe risks on second-crop systems in the Cerrado. This study evaluated the temporal variability of droughts and the climate risks associated with cotton production in Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, from 1970 to 2024. ERA5-Land reanalysis data were used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1-, 3-, and 6-month time scales. Trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, revealing high interannual precipitation variability, with a mean of 1,684.0 mm, as well as an increase in the occurrence of moderate to severe drought events from 2020 onward. A significant negative trend in water availability was observed between May and October, indicating greater persistence of the dry season and irregularity in the onset of rainfall. The SPI-6 also revealed persistent anomalies, with potential implications for soil water recharge. For cotton, this scenario amplifies the risks during crop establishment, flowering, and boll filling, potentially compromising yield and fiber quality. In conclusion, the SPI constitutes a relevant tool to support agricultural planning, Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (ZARC), the adjustment of sowing dates, and conservation practices.
Keywords: climate variability; standardized precipitation index; water deficit; Brazilian Cerrado; agricultural systems.
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