TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHTS USING THE SPI INDEX AND ITSIMPACTS ON COTTON CULTIVATION IN CAMPO VERDE, MATOGROSSO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i3.20760Keywords:
Climate Variability, Standardized Precipitation Index, Water Deficit, Brazilian Cerrado, Agricultural SystemsAbstract
The application of drought indices has gained prominence in agricultural regions due to its
ability to assist in planning and identifying climatic anomalies, especially in second-crop production
systems. In this context, this study analyzed the temporal variability of precipitation in the municipality of
Campo Verde – MT, focusing on the identification of drought events using the Standardized Precipitation
Index (SPI) and its impacts on cotton cultivation. Monthly precipitation data from the ERA5-Land
reanalysis for the period 1970 to 2024 were used. SPI calculations were performed on scales of 1, 3, and 6
months, encompassing the entire crop cycle. The non-parametric Man-Kendall test was applied for trend
analysis. The results showed high inter-annual rainfall variability, with a range of 855 mm, and intra-annual
variability, highlighting moderate to severe droughts (SPI < -1.00), especially in the periods of 2005/2006,
2015/2016 and 2020/2021. Cotton's sensitivity to drought varies according to the phenological stage of the
crop and can cause negative effects on productivity. The SPI proves to be an effective tool to guide planting,
irrigation and management decisions in the face of increasing rainfall irregularity.
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