MAPPING THE DISTRIBUTION AND HABITAT SUITABILITY OF THE CRITICALLY ENDANGERED Aubregrinia taiensis IN GHANA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i1.19989Palavras-chave:
biodiversity hotspots, endangered flora, climate change impacts, habitat modeling, MaxentResumo
Distribuição geográfica e adequação de habitat de Aubregrinia taiensis em Gana
RESUMO: Aubregrinia taiensis é uma espécie arbórea rara e criticamente ameaçada de extinção, com distribuição nativa altamente restrita em Gana, Costa do Marfim e Libéria. Neste estudo, apresentamos uma análise espacial detalhada das distribuições de A. taiensis em países da África Ocidental. Modelos de Adequação de Habitat (HSMs) para a espécie foram desenvolvidos por meio da técnica de aprendizado de máquina por entropia máxima (Maxent). Variáveis ambientais bioclimáticas do banco de dados WorldClim foram usadas para simular a distribuição futura da espécie com base em dois cenários de emissões de gases de efeito estufa (RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5) para 2050 e 2070. Nossos resultados confirmam a população limitada e altamente fragmentada da espécie. A distribuição atual de A. taiensis em Gana é estimada em 65.123,78 km², abrangendo os limites superiores da floresta úmida-perene do Sudoeste até as zonas mais baixas da zona de transição floresta-savana. Quatro variáveis bioclimáticas principais — Bio 10 (temperatura média do mês mais quente), Bio 12 (precipitação anual), Bio 5 (precipitação do trimestre mais seco) e altitude — influenciaram a ocorrência e a aptidão de A. taiensis. Além disso, em ambos os cenários de emissão, nossos modelos indicaram uma redução significativa da distribuição, de 76,4% e 89,6%. Até 2070, essa redução poderá pôr Aubregrinia taiensis em risco de extinção. Diante disso, são propostas intervenções específicas de conservação para mitigar esse risco.
Palavras-chave: hotspots de biodiversidade; flora ameaçada de extinção; impactos das mudanças climáticas; modelagem de habitat; Maxent.
Referências
AMISSAH, L.; MOHREN, G. M. J.; KYEREH, B.; AGYEMAN, V. K.; POORTER, L. Rainfall seasonality and drought performance shape the distribution of tropical tree species in Ghana. Ecology and Evolution, v. 8, p. 8582-8597, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4384
ARAÚJO, M.; GUISAN, A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, v. 33, p. 1677-1688, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01584.x
ASASE, A.; JIMÉNEZ GARCÍA, D.; PETERSON, A. T. Effects of climatic change on the potential geographic distribution of the threatened West Central African endemic genus, Talbotiella. African Journal of Ecology, v. 59, p. 479-488, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/aje.12845
AUBRÉVILLE, A.; PELLEGRIN, F. Endotricha. Bulletin de la Société Botanique de France, v. 81, p. 794, 1935.
BALTZER, J. L.; DAVIES, S. J.; BUNYAVEJCHEWIN, S.; NOOR, N. The role of desiccation tolerance in determining tree species distributions along the Malay -Thai Peninsula. Functional Ecology, v. 22, n. 2, p. 221-231, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2007.01374.x
BOOTH, T. H.; NIX, H. A.; BUSBY, J. R.; HUTCHINSON, M. F. BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MAXENT studies. Diversity and Distributions, v. 20, n. 1, p. 1-9, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12144
BORIA, R. A.; OLSON, L. E.; GOODMAN, S. M.; ANDERSON, R. P. Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models. Ecological Modelling, v. 275, p. 73-77, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.012
BOURG, N. A.; MCSHEA, W. J.; GILL, D. E. Putting a CART before the search: Successful habitat prediction for a rare forest herb. Ecology, v. 86, n. 10, p. 2793-2804, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-1666
BOTANIC GARDENS CONSERVATION INTERNATIONAL. Planning conservation actions for Ghana’s threatened trees. BGCI Ghana Workshop Report, Richmond: BGCI, 2023. p. 5-7. Available on: https://www.bgci.org/wp/wpcontent/uploads/2023/03/PCAGhanaMedRes.pdf. Accessed at: 24 Mar. 2025.
BUCKLEY, L. B.; URBAN, M. C.; ANGILLETTA, M. J.; CROZIER, L. G.; RISSLER, L. J.; SEARS, M. W. Can mechanisms inform species’ distribution models? Ecology Letters, v. 13, n. 8, p. 1041-1054, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01479.x
CHASE, J. M.; LEIBOLD, M. A. Ecological niches: linking classical and contemporary approaches. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2003. 221p.
ÇOBAN, O. H.; ORUCU, K. O.; ARSLAN, S. E. MaxEnt modeling for predicting the current and future potential geographical distribution of Quercus libani Olivier. Sustainability, v. 12, n. 7, e2671, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072671
COUNCIL FOR SCIENTIFIC AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH - FORESTRY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF GHANA. Threatened trees of Ghana project technical report. Fumesua: FORIG, 2024.
DABO, J.; OPOKU KWARTENG, C.; OPPONG AMPONSAH, J. Aubregrinia taiensis. In: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2024: e.T32193A147293571. 2024. Available on: https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2024-1.RLTS.T32193A147293571.en. Accessed at: 24 Mar. 2025.
DONG, J.; BAI, T.; GAO, Z.-S.; YANG, S.-W.; ZHANG, J.-L.; WU, Y.-W. Prediction of potential habitat areas of Rhododendron delavayi in China based on the maximum entropy model, MaxEnt. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, v. 7, e1360823, 2024. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1360823
ECOREGION SNAPSHOTS. Eastern Guinean Forests: descriptive abstracts of the terrestrial ecoregions of the World. [S. l.]: One Earth & Resolve, 2021. Available on: https://www.oneearth.org/ecoregions/eastern-guinean-forests/. Accessed at: 24 Mar. 2025.
ELITH, J.; GRAHAM, C. H. Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for the differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, v. 32, n. 1, p. 66-77, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05505.x
ENGELBRECHT, B. M.; COMITA, L. S.; CONDIT, R.; KURSAR, T. A.; TYREE, M. T.; TURNER, B. L.; HUBBELL, S. P. Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests. Nature, v. 447, p. 80-82, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05747
ESCOBAR, L. E.; LIRA NORIEGA, A.; MEDINA VOGEL, G.; PETERSON, A. T. Potential for spread of the white nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and Niche A to assure strict model transference. Geospatial Health, v. 9, e221228, 2014. https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2014.19
FICK, S. E.; HIJMANS, R. J. WorldClim 2: new 1 km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, v. 37, n. 12, p. 4302-4315, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
FIELDING, A. H.; BELL, J. F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, v. 24, n. 1, p. 38-49, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892997000088
GUISAN, A.; THUILLER, W.; ZIMMERMANN, N. E. Habitat suitability and distribution models: with applications in R. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017. 462p. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139028271
HAWTHORNE, W. D. Ecological Profiles of Ghanaian Forest Trees. Tropical Forestry Papers, v. 29. Oxford: University of Oxford, 1995. 345p.
HAUSFATHER, Z.; PETERS, G. P. Emissions - the 'business as usual' story is misleading. Nature, v. 577, n. 7792, p. 18-620, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3
HAWTHORNE, W.; GYAKARI, N. Photoguide for the forest trees of Ghana: a Tree spotter's field Guide for identifying the largest trees. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006. 432p.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE. AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014 - Final Summary for Policymakers. Geneva: IPCC, 2014. Available on: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/. Accessed at: 24 Mar. 2025.
INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURE. Red List of Species: critically endangered species. Gland: IUCN, 2025. IUCN Species Survival Commission 2021 2025. Available on: https://www.iucnredlist.org/. Accessed at: 24 Mar. 2025.
KASS, J. M.; MUSCARELLA, R.; GALANTE, P. J.; BOHL, C. L.; PINILLA-BUITRAGO, G. E.; BORIA, R. A.; SOLEY-GUARDIA, M.; ANDERSON, R. P. ENMeval 2.0: Redesigned for customizable and reproducible modelling of species’ niches and distributions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, v. 12, n. 9, p. 1602-1608, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13628
JOSE V, S.; NAMEER, P. O. The expanding distribution of the Indian Peafowl (Pavo cristatus) as an indicator of changing climate in Kerala, southern India: a modelling study using MaxEnt. Ecological Indicators, v. 110, e105930, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105930
OUATTARA, D.; TRO, H.; KONÉ, D.; AFANVI, A.; COULIBALY, D.; BAKAYOKO, A. Co occurring plant species of the West African critically endangered Aubregrinia taiensis in Côte d’Ivoire. American Journal of Plant Sciences, v. 14, n. 8, p. 915-928, 2023. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajps.2023.148061
PAPEŞ, M.; GAUBERT, P. Modelling ecological niches from low numbers of occurrences: assessment of the conservation status of poorly known viverrids (Mammalia, Carnivora) across two continents. Diversity and Distributions, v. 13, n. 6, p. 890-902, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00392.x
PEARSON, R. G.; DAWSON, T. P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, v. 12, n. 5, p. 361-371, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x
PEARSON, R. G.; RAXWORTHY, C. J.; NAKAMURA, M.; PETERSON, A. T. Predicting species’ distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. Journal of Biogeography, v. 34, n. 1, p. 102-117, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01594.x
PENCE, V. C.; BRUNS, E. B.; MEYER, A.; PRITCHAR, H. W.; WESTWOOD, M.; LINSKY, J.; GRATZFELD, J.; HELM-WALLACE, S.; LIU, U.; RIVERS, M.; BEECH, E. Gap analysis of exceptional species using a global list of exceptional plants to expand strategic ex situ conservation action beyond conventional seed banking. Biological Conservation, v. 266, e109439, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109439
PENNINGTON, T. A monograph of the Genera of Sapotaceae. New York: Kew Miscellaneous Publications / Royal Botanic Gardens, 1991. 770p.
PETERSON, A. T.; SOBERÓN, J.; PEARSON, R. G.; ANDERSON, R. P.; MARTÍNEZ-MEYER, E.; NAKAMURA, M.; ARAÚJO, M. B. Ecological niches and geographic distributions. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011. 328p.
PETERSON, A. T.; PAPEŞ, M.; SOBERÓN, J. Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling. Ecological Modelling, v. 213, p. 63-72, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.008
PHILLIPS, S. J.; ANDERSON, R. P.; SCHAPIRE, R. E. Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, v. 190, n. 3-4, p. 231-259, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
PHILLIPS, S. J.; DUDÍK, M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, v. 31, p. 161-175, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x
RATHORE, M. K.; SHARMA, L. K. Efficacy of species distribution models (SDMs) for ecological realms to ascertain biological conservation and practices. Biodiversity and Conservation, v. 32, p. 3053-3087, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02648-1
RAXWORTHY, C. J.; MARTINEZ-MEYER, E.; HORNING, N.; NUSSBAUM, R. A.; SCHNEIDER, G. E.; ORTEGA-HUERTA, M. A.; PETERSON, A. T. Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar. Nature, v. 426, p. 837-841, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02205
THIBAUD, E.; PETITPIERRE, B.; BROENNIMANN, O.; DAVISON, A. C.; GUISAN, C. Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, v. 5, n. 9, p. 947-955, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12203
TOLEDO, M.; PEÑA-CLAROS, M.; BONGERS, F.; ALARCÓN, A.; BALCÁZAR, J.; CHUVIÑA, J.; LEAÑO, C.; LICONA, J. C.; POOTER, L. Distribution patterns of tropical woody species in response to climatic and edaphic gradients. Journal of Ecology, v. 100, n. 1, p. 253-263, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01890.x
WARREN, D. L.; GLOR, R. E.; TURELLI, M. Environmental niche equivalency versus conservatism: quantitative approaches to niche evolution. Evolution, v. 62, n. 4, p. 2868-2886, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1558-5646.2008.00482.x
WISZ, M. S.; HIJMANS, R. J.; LI, J.; PETERSON, A. T.; GRAHAM, C. H.; GUISAN, A. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions, v. 14, n. 5, p. 763-771, 2008.
YESSON, C.; BREWER, P. W.; SUTTON, T.; CAITHNESS, N.; PAHWA, J. S.; BURGESS, M.; GRAY, W. A.; WHITE, R. J.; JONES, A. C.; BISBY, F. A.; CULHAM, A. How Global Is the Global Biodiversity Information Facility? Plos One, v. 2, n. 11, e1124, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001124
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Como Citar
Licença
Copyright (c) 2026 Nativa
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Direitos Autorais para artigos publicados nesta revista são do autor, com direitos de primeira publicação para a revista. Em virtude de a aparecerem nesta revista de acesso público, os artigos são de uso gratuito, com atribuições próprias, em aplicações educacionais e não-comerciais.
A artigos publicados nessa revista, podem ser reproduzidos parcialmente ou utilizados como referência por outros autores, desde que seja cita a fonte, ou seja, a Revista Nativa.
Copyright for articles published in this journal are the authors, with first publication rights granted to the journal. The journal shows open access, and articles are free to use, with proper attribution, in educational and non-commercial.
The articles published in this journal may be reproduced in part or used as a reference by other authors, provided that the source is quoted.
