Excess mortality associated to meteor-tropic effects that influence Cuba

Abstract

It is a fact that Cuba's climate is already experiencing some specific impacts of global climate change. These include the increasing incidence of extreme meteor-tropic effects, which, in addition to the already known hydrometeorological hazards (hurricanes, heavy rains, sea penetrations, strong winds and droughts), now include intense sensations of heat and cold, notable events of atmospheric pollution and sudden weather changes. These hazards have different origins and occur differently during the seasons of the year, almost all of them are predisposing factors of various meteor-pathologies, and in the most notable cases, a contribution to the increase of daily excess mortality is observed. This article attempts to establish specific relationships between the influential synoptic processes and the local conditions of the thermal regime, with the excess mortality of the western and eastern halves of Cuba, based on a database of these variables for the period 2001-2020. Well-defined relationships are found between days with excess mortality and the presence of extreme meteor-tropic effects, identified by the types and subtypes of synoptic situations influencing Cuba, the contrasting changes in the oxygen content of the air and the extreme behavior of air temperature. These relationships have seasonal differences in the genesis, characteristics and duration of the mortality maxima, which are explained by different factors that act simultaneously. The starting conditions of the possible meteor-pathologies associated with the extremes of the thermal regime are identified, leading to a preliminary estimation of the occurrence of heat and cold waves in the western and eastern halves of Cuba. Given the breadth of the topic addressed, its continuation is recommended, in the context of the development of biometeorological forecast services, as an essential operational tool to face the impacts of climate variability and weather conditions.