GLOBAL META-ANALYSIS OF DUCK DISEASES: EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS AND CONTROL STRATEGIES

Abstract

The pooled prevalence of key duck viral infections varied widely: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAIV) reached 12.87% (95% CI: 10.5–15.2%) across populations. Meta-regression identified geographic region, diagnostic method, and production system as major moderators of heterogeneity (I² > 75%). Prevalence was higher in Asia (20%) than in Europe/North America (5%), showing strong regional contrasts. Risk factor analysis revealed that poor biosecurity, live bird market exposure, and free-range systems elevated infection risk (OR = 2.1–4.5). A Bayesian hierarchical model estimated that farms with inadequate biosecurity faced 3.2-fold higher outbreak risk. Spatial SEIR models identified hotspots in dense poultry areas with frequent wild bird contact. Qualitative synthesis of policy documents and interviews emphasized constraints: low farmer awareness, limited resources, cultural reliance on live markets, and weak vaccine logistics. Joint analysis linked high-prevalence regions to infrastructural and policy weaknesses. The study highlights the need for integrated surveillance, farmer training, and targeted vaccination. Despite diagnostic inconsistencies and data gaps, it establishes a robust, mixed-methods framework for evidence-based duck disease control and global One Health policy development.

Keywords: biosecurity; risk factors; mixed-methods synthesis; prevalence modeling; One Health framework.