INTENTION TO ADOPT CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AMONG WHEAT FARMERS IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN: AN EXTENDED THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOUR

Autores

  • Hafiz Muhammad Mohsin Raza mohsinraza121945@gmail.com
    Department of Agriculture Sciences, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3305-285X
  • Sher Muhammad sher.muhammad@aiou.edu.pk
    Department of Agriculture Sciences, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0769-5066
  • Muhammad Ali aliupm777@gmail.com
    Department of Agricultural Extension, PMAS- Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9995-4020
  • Muhammad Shaukat muhammad.shaukat@aiou.edu.pk
    Department of Agriculture Sciences, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8635-8692
  • Muhammad Tahir tahir_1558@yahoo.com
    Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Islamabad, Pakistan.
  • Hifsa Rehman hafsarehman048@gmail.com
    Government Girls Primary School, Kumhar Wala, Markaz Shah Jamal, Muzaffargarh, Punjab, Pakistan.
  • Amina Batool amnabatool22@gmail.com
    Department of Agriculture Research Wing, Government of the Punjab, Punjab, Pakistan. https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1763-7402
  • Adnan Arshad ad@cau.edu.cn
    State Key Lab Agroecosystem, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8755-5281
  • Muhammad Safdar m.safdar@xust.edu.cn
    College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, China. https://orcid.org/0009-0006-1779-6967
  • Daniel Carneirode Abreu abreu@ufmt.br
    Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT, Brazil. / AgriSciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT, Brazil. / Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT, Brazil. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1082-1019
  • Paulo Sérgio da Silva Rodrigues paulo.rodrigues5@sou.ufmt.br
    AgriSciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT, Brazil. / Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Sinop, MT, Brazil. https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4750-8778

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i4.21612


Palavras-chave:

Triticum aestivum L., climate change adaptation, reasoned action approach, PLS-SEM, agricultural extension, smallholder farmers

Resumo

Intenção de adoção de práticas agrícolas resilientes ao clima por produtores de trigo em Punjab, Paquistão: uma Teoria do Comportamento Planejado estendida

 

Este estudo teve como objetivo investigar os determinantes psicossociais da intenção de produtores de trigo de adotar um conjunto específico de práticas agrícolas resilientes ao clima (CRAPs, na sigla em inglês) na província de Punjab, no Paquistão. A abordagem baseou-se em uma extensão da Teoria do Comportamento Planejado (TCP), incluindo os seguintes construtos: atitude, normas subjetivas, controle comportamental percebido, confiança no desempenho das CRAPs e o manejo atual de práticas resilientes ao clima (comportamento passado). Entre maio e julho de 2024, realizou-se um estudo transversal com 384 produtores de trigo, utilizando um delineamento em seis estágios: seleção intencional de zonas agroecológicas, distritos e *tehsils* (subdivisões distritais), seguida de amostragem aleatória de *union councils* (unidades administrativas locais), vilarejos e produtores. As cinco CRAPs analisadas foram: cultivo conservacionista, uso de variedades certificadas tolerantes ao calor e à seca, semeadura na época adequada, fertilização balanceada por estágios de desenvolvimento da cultura e irrigação nas fases críticas. Para a análise dos dados, utilizou-se a modelagem de equações estruturais por mínimos quadrados parciais (PLS-SEM), com 10.000 subamostras geradas por meio de bootstrapping. A atitude foi o preditor positivo mais forte da intenção (β = 0,446; IC 95% 0,319–0,543; p < 0,001), seguida pela confiança no desempenho das CRAPs (β = 0,344; p < 0,001) e pelo controle comportamental percebido (β = 0,172; p = 0,001). As normas subjetivas não apresentaram significância estatística (β = 0,038; p = 0,455). Apesar de haver correlação bivariada positiva com a intenção, o manejo atual de CRAPs apresentou um coeficiente parcial negativo (β = −0,246; p < 0,001). Esse resultado reflete um padrão de supressão estatística ou um "efeito teto", e não uma resistência à mudança. O modelo explicou 48,6% da variância na intenção (R² ajustado = 0,479; Q²predict = 0,389). Dada a natureza transversal e o foco na intenção, os resultados referem-se à intenção de adoção, e não à adoção efetiva das práticas. Eles propõem que programas de extensão reforcem a intenção ao demonstrar aos produtores o sucesso agronômico das práticas agrícolas resilientes ao clima (CRAPs) e auxiliá-los a desenvolver a capacidade de adotá-las.

Palavras-chave: Triticum aestivum L.; adaptação às mudanças climáticas; abordagem da ação fundamentada; PLS-SEM; extensão agrícola; pequenos agricultores.

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Publicado

2026-10-28

Edição

v. 14 n. 4 (2026): (Em Andamento/In Progress)

Seção

Desenvolvimento Rural / Rural development

Como Citar

INTENTION TO ADOPT CLIMATE-RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AMONG WHEAT FARMERS IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN: AN EXTENDED THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOUR. (2026). Nativa, 14(4), e21612. https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v14i4.21612

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Copyright (c) 2026 Hafiz Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Sher Muhammad, Muhammad Ali, Muhammad Shaukat, Muhammad Tahir, Hifsa Rehman, Amina Batool, Adnan Arshad, Muhammad Safdar, Daniel Carneirode Abreu, Paulo Sérgio da Silva Rodrigues

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