LONG-TERM ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT PHENOMENA IN THE LONG XUYEN QUADRANGLE, VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31413/nat.v13i1.18504
Palavras-chave:
meteorological drought, SPI, RAI, disaster risk, water managementResumo
Floods and droughts are considered extreme climatic phenomena that significantly negatively impact human life and socio-economic activities. Using trend determination methods combined with statistical data, this study evaluates the evolution of floods and droughts over the past 45 years (1979-2023) in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle (LXQ) of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). The results indicate that large and medium floods have become less frequent, while small floods have increased significantly. Flood levels have fluctuated over time and tend to decrease. However, contrary to the decreasing trend of peak flood levels in the upstream (Chau Doc) and inland areas (Tri Ton), the downstream area (Long Xuyen) shows an increasing trend in peak flood levels. Additionally, by calculating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), the study has assessed the characteristics, frequency, and trends of meteorological droughts in the LXQ. The results indicate that from 1979 to 2023, the study area experienced fairly severe droughts; however, the severity has decreased gradually in recent years. The frequency and expression of droughts vary over time and space, with some periods experiencing prolonged droughts. The findings of this study can provide a critical basis and understanding to help managers propose policies and solutions to mitigate and respond to the increasing natural disasters in the LXQ region in recent times.
Keywords: meteorological drought; SPI; RAI; disaster risk; water management.
Avaliação de longo prazo dos fenômenos de inundação e seca no Quadrilátero Long Xuyen, Delta do Mekong vietnamita
RESUMO: Inundações e secas são consideradas fenômenos climáticos extremos que impactam significativamente a vida humana e as atividades socioeconômicas. Usando métodos de determinação de tendências combinados com dados estatísticos, este estudo avaliou a evolução de inundações e secas nos últimos 45 anos (1979-2023) no Quadrilátero Long Xuyen (LXQ), do Delta do Mekong Vietnamita (VMD). Os resultados mostram que inundações grandes e médias se tornaram menos frequentes, enquanto pequenas inundações aumentaram significativamente. Os níveis de inundação flutuaram ao longo do tempo e tendem a diminuir. No entanto, ao contrário da tendência decrescente dos níveis máximos de inundação nas áreas a montante (Chau Doc) e no interior (Tri Ton), a área a jusante (Long Xuyen) mostra uma tendência crescente nos níveis máximos de inundação. Além disso, ao calcular o Índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI) e o Índice de Anomalia de Chuva (RAI), o estudo avaliou as características, frequência e tendências de secas meteorológicas no LXQ. Os resultados indicam que de 1979 a 2023, a área de estudo sofreu secas bastante severas, mas a severidade diminuiu lentamente nos últimos anos. A frequência e a expressão das secas variam ao longo do tempo e do espaço, com alguns períodos sofrendo secas prolongadas. As descobertas deste estudo podem fornecer uma base crítica e compreensão para ajudar os gestores a propor políticas e soluções para mitigar e responder aos crescentes desastres naturais na região LXQ nos últimos tempos.
Palavras-chave: seca meteorológica; SPI; RAI; risco de desastre.
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