AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DIFFUSE RADIATION MODELS FOR PREDICTION ON HOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION IN TILTED SURFACE
DOI:
10.31413/nativa.v2i1.1371Resumo
AVALIAÇÃO DE MODELOS DE ESTIMATIVA DA RADIAÇÃO DIFUSA NA OBTENÇÃO DA RADIAÇÃO GLOBAL HORÁRIA EM SUPERFÍCIES INCLINADAS
A radiação solar incidente em planos inclinados é composta por três componentes: direta, difusa e refletida do solo. A radiação refletida apresenta um efeito pequeno e a radiação direta pode ser obtida por modelos isotrópicos. Em geral, as maiores limitações dependem da radiação difusa por variações nas subcomponentes circunsolar, brilho horizontal, isotrópicos e anisotrópicos. Este trabalho avaliou a influência do modelo de estimativa da radiação difusa na obtenção da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas a 12.85º, 22,85º e 32,85° para o Norte, na partição horária, sob diferentes condições de nebulosidade, em Botucatu, SP (22° 53' S, 48° 26' W e 786 m de altitude). Foram avaliados os seguintes modelos: Circunsolar [CIR], Badescu [Ba], Hay [Ha] e Ma e Iqbal [MI], indicados como os melhores modelos para estimativa da radiação difusa nas condições geográficas e climáticas locais. O aumento da inclinação proporcionou maiores dispersões entre valores medidos e estimados da radiação global. As maiores variações nos resíduos estatísticos foram encontrados para coeficientes de transmissividade atmosférica inferiores a 0,15 e em condições de céu nublado ocorreram melhores estimativa em função dos baixos níveis energéticos.
Palavras-chave: transmissividade atmosférica, indicativos estatísticos, modelos parametrizados.
ABSTRACT
The total solar irradiation incident on a tilted surface consists in three components including: direct, diffuse and reflected from the ground. The reflected radiation has a small effect and the direct radiation can be calculated with an isotropic model. The most difficulty depends on diffuse radiation by circumsolar variations, horizontal brightness, isotropic and anisotropic subcomponents. This study evaluated the influence of diffuse radiation estimate by different models for obtaining the incident global radiation on tilted surfaces at 12.85, 22.85and 32.85° facing to North, in hourly temporal partition, under different cloudiness sky conditions, in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil (22°53′ S, 48°26′ W and 786 m above sea level). The following models were: Circumsolar [CIR], Badescu [Ba], Hay [Ha] and Ma and Iqbal [MI], that are indicated as the best models for estimating the diffuse radiation in the geographic and climatic local conditions. The increase of the inclination angle provides increased scattering between measured and estimated. The largest variations in the statistical residues were found for atmospheric transmissivity coefficients less than 0.15 and the best estimates occurred of cloudy skies due the low energy levels.
Keywords: atmospheric transmissivity, statistical index, parameterized models.
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